WERU forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to ...
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متن کاملCombining forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a trimmed mean is desirable if you combine forecasts resulting from five or more methods. Use different ...
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In this paper we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the distribution of demand in the future to be stochastically increasing in the demand that has been observed in the past. We base our analysis on the multiperiod inventory model examined by Eppen and Iyer (1997). In the process of establishing the necessary and sufficient conditions we develop a new property called the sequential...
متن کاملPrecipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts
Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Welsh Economic Review
سال: 2000
ISSN: 2397-8716
DOI: 10.18573/wer.245